Reports out of Russia say that scientists estimate that asteroid 99942 Apophis will collide with Earth on April 13, 2036, but a report came out this week which said the chance of it striking the earth is highly unlikely.

Unlikely if you consider a 1-in-250,000 chance a big enough gamble to bet on planet Earth.

Apophis, will be at its closest point in to the Earth in 2029, it will be at least 18,300 miles away from our motherland. According to the chief of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program, Donald Yeomans, the probability of it striking the Earth has been “ruled out – what we call a keyhole during that close Earth approach … then it will indeed be perturbed just right so that it will come back and smack Earth on April 13, 2036, adding that the chances of entering this gravitational keyhole is miniscule,”

However, I have seen worse probabilities of ‘hitting the big one’ in the lottery…multiple times.

The Russian scientists are basing their predictions of a collision on the chance that the 900-foot-long (270 meters) Apophis will travel through what’s called a gravitational keyhole as it passes by Earth in 2029. The gravitational keyhole they mention is a precise region in space, only slightly larger than the asteroid itself, in which the effect of Earth’s gravity is such that it could tweak Apophis’ path.
There are several reasons not to panic, though.

One is the fact that it will probably break up and smaller bits of it will bombard the Earth over the next few years.
The other is that we’ve got a bit of warning.

In 2029, when it swings close by the Earth, we’ll find out whether Apophis has nailed a gravitational keyhole that will drag it into our orbit seven years later.

The gap is just 600m wide, so there’s a fair chance it won’t happen, but there is also a fair chance that it will.

If it goes through what they call a keyhole during that close Earth approach (in 2029) … then it will indeed be perturbed just right so that it will come back and annihilate the Earth on April 13, 2036. Everything will be done according to the laws of physics.

The asteroid Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004

[Cheers space.com]